10-MILLIONEN-SCHWEIZ – abstracts 2/2016

Raymond Kohli
Scenarios regarding the development of the population in Switzerland 2015–2045

Scenarios for the future development of the population in Switzerland have to be regularly updated to take into account, not only the development of the population but also the changes that can take place in politics, the economy and society. In the light of this, the Swiss Federal Office for Statistics (BFS) has worked out new scenarios regarding the development of the population in Switzerland for the period 2015 to 2045. Three basic scenarios have been calculated. The reference scenario is the scenario A-00-20015 which is based on a continuation of the developments of last year. The “high” scenario (B-00-20015) is based on a combination of hypotheses that support the population growth, while the “deep” scenario (C-00-2015) combines hypotheses less in favour of the population growth.
Keywords: demography, politics, economy, society, migration, medicine, education

Georges T. Roos
10 theses on the future of Switzerland of 10 million inhabitants
According to estimates of the Swiss Federal Office for Statistics it could well be that the population of Switzerland will reach 10 million. Challenges that have to be faced in the light of this will be many. With such social developments, opportunities as well as risks have to be reckoned with, not least in view of the imminent 4th industrial revolution – and the author will summarise these in 10 theses.
Keywords: ordinary retirement age (AHV), health care, 4th industrial revolution, life expectancy, internet of things, energy policy turnaround, epidemics

Andréa Belliger
Old, elderly, ageless – not just many more but for longer too
The digital transformation does not just change our world of work and communications but also significantly changes our values, our ideas on health and sickness for instance. Current technological innovations such as apps, wearables, big data in cloud storage systems and medical advances have created a whole series of new possibilities and services for the networked, participating patient. Above all it demonstrates one thing: we will persistently become older, without actually feeling old.
Keywords: life expectancy, age, medicine, digital transformation, digital health, connectivity, network, apps, wearables, quantified self, big data, value change

Peter Streckeisen
Population production and development of the social state
What changes are in store for the social state if the population increases to 10 million? Initially nothing: it depends, if it actually occurs, on how this growth will be handled socially and politically. Scenarios on population development should not stoke fear – and certainly not due to a unilateral focus on “over-aging” – but should instead design the future and see it as a field for various possibilities. This means fathoming everything out and making the very best out of it.
Keywords: social state, bio politics, future research

Monika Potkanski
An Aging 10-Million-Switzerland: are we ready to take care
of our elderly migrants?

The Swiss Federal Office for Statistics (BFS) expects the population of Switzerland to reach 10.2 million by 2045. Those aged 65+ will constitute approximately 28 % of the population, more than half of whom will be of immigrant origins. In the future, this group will become increasingly heterogeneous in terms of its geo- graphic, ethnic and cultural background, and will likely be subject to an uneven distribution of resources, poor health and lower pensions. In view of this, Swiss policy makers will have to deal intensely with the issues of an aging society and how to empower the elderly of immigrant origin.
Keywords: migration, elderly immigrants, demographic change, population aging, vulnerability

Andreas Wittmer
Transport infrastructure for a Switzerland of 10 million inhabitants
Airports with a hub are of great significance for connecting to the globally networked market and the economic development of the country. In Switzerland general conditions at the moment are far too complicated for the development of an aviation infrastructure, vital as the prerequisite for creating a Swiss hub. Longterm thinking and a pioneer spirit are necessary to create such prerequisites to ensure Switzerland does not lose its connection to international aviation in the future.
Keywords: mobility, aviation, infrastructure, hub, Europe, economy, quality of life

Reiner Eichenberger
Switzerland 2035: old, totally fit und completely mobile
Population growth and over-aging need not necessarily imply a gloomy view of the future: with reasonable measures taken for the future in the fields of geriatric work, immigration and mobility an increase in general prosperity can be enabled. Three suggestions.
Keywords: aging, migration, mobility, prosperity, economics, politics

Hans-Georg Bächtold
The 10 million Switzerland – cause for concern?
The prognosis of the development of the population to 10 million by 2040 made by the Swiss Federal Office for Statistics (BFS) has made many people feel distinctly insecure. For those people to feel properly reassured an extemely differentiated analysis of their worries and a respectful handling of them is required. This involves innovative planning and building processes, spatial planning (which actually does plan space) a paradigm shift in building legislation and a pole reversal in social ideals.
Keywords: demography, spatial planning, innovation, politics

Benjamin Moser
Design for all
According to the reference scenario of the Swiss Federal O ce for Statistics (BFS) in 2045 there will be more than 2.7 million people over 65-years-old. By comparison, at the end of 2014 the corresponding figure was a mere 1.5 million. What does this striking aging of the population actually signify for product designers, architects and interior designers? What opportunities are offered by the growth of the “over-65s” for the development of new products and the deployment of space? A field report on the first level and a view on a possible contribution to our aging society by means of universal design is essential.
Keywords: universal design, health care, care-products, service providers, living, value change

Daniel Stanislaus Martel
How liveable is a Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants?
The Swiss population has increased by around 80’000 annually over recent years. Statisticians and politicians identify immigration as the major driver. Numerous groups warn of major consequences: less space and more crowding. Depending on the worldview involved, they speak of the “urban sprawl” over the landscape through more housing or the “soullessness of our cities” brought on by the apartment block. For all concerned the question is are we soon to live with ten million others? What would this mean for those living and travelling here? Perhaps something unexpected will happen?
Keywords: immigration, living space, sustainability, urbanism, mobility, industrial revolution

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